Economic and business applications

Modelling economy and supporting business decisions requires special tools and methods. Details and levels (micro, mezzo and macro) of economic modelling depend on the problem to be solved. Multinational companies also require extended tools for modelling their business processes when faced with difficult decisions either on national or international level. Applied Logic Laboratory has suggested and implemented an original approach to support modelling, intelligent data analysis and forecasting in economy and business.

The approach provides efficient methods for creating constructive models and combining different types of models, such as static, dynamic, logical and numerical descriptions. Innovative modelling techniques include self-organising models which can be combined with special statistical and logic-based methods for handling descriptive (qualitative) information.

The developed combined methodology supports the solution of the following problems:

• short and long term forecasting
• identification of regularities including cycles,
• approximation of multivariate processes,
• clustering data and events,
• determination of (evolutionary) dynamic balance, and
• recognition of events, situations and patterns in multidimensional information spaces.

The methodology has been applied for solving different problems some of which are listed below:

• macro economic modelling for analysis and forecasting,
• stock market analysis and forecasting,
• currency market forecasting,
• modelling macroeconomy in transient periods,
• modelling of various micro economic situations and processes,
• analysis and forecasting of demand for services and goods,
• modelling manufacturing processes,
• modelling service provision processes, and
• modelling marketing processes